Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Just a moment while we sign you in to your Goodreads account. But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. Fooled by Randomness – Book Review The past decade has witnessed the release of many books about risk management and assessment, but none have managed to illustrate the role that random events play in life and markets as well as Nissim Nicholas Taleb’s latest work. But, all that’s just literary style -- and apparently a very popular one, judging by the sales of the book. Start by marking “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” as Want to Read: Error rating book. The concepts in this book are invaluable for those developing critical thinking skills. by Random House Trade Paperbacks, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. Who should I read? And thus people get fooled by randomness and create theories of success. One sentence review: Expect the unexpected. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. It was first published in 2001. Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. They're stupid'. everyone. Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system". The author continually pontificates that random events happen in life. His main idea is that probability is not mere computation of the odds - it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and developing methods for dealing with our ignorance. The book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2001. I don't really disagree with his criticisms of MBAs, economists, traders, journalists, etc., but I also don't think anything he says is especially revealing of insightful for most of us who aren't involved in the trading world. If you're really interested in randomness, I would recommend The Drunkard's Walk. He continues down this train of thought until he reaches the conclusion that the ultimate success and failure of some people can primarily be explained by luck. In multiple ways. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. On Amazon, the book has a rating of 4.3, rated by 1,124 people, with 62% of reviewers giving 5 stars. And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition. And because of that effectiveness (many of my students stated they never read anything book length voluntarily), the book keeps the readers attention (if the tone does not drive them away!) The attitude and tone he takes has a purpose, to deliver a message in three parts: we are not good at dealing with uncertainty, we don't think about uncertainty right because we tend to only see what actually happened instead of considering all the possibilities, and the way to get past this is to consider the process and be assured that it would have handled bad news well. A few insights from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Taleb has quickly become one of my favorite writers, possibly my favorite thinker. Even if The Millionaire’s methodology didn’t meet statistical rigor and suffered from selection bias, the behavior of the various subjects interviewed matched the pattern of Taleb’s hypothetical Manhattan dentist who is probabilistically richer than any lottery winner. Part II is markedly better than Part I because he finally delves into what I (foolishly?) All in all, I am really puzzled by the popularity of this book, and I would strongly recommend against bothering with this one. And that I believe is the problem. But he neither uses actual events or statistics. With the meltdown in the world financial system I felt drawn to reading Taleb's Fooled by Randomness written before the meltdown but in a way predicting it. This is a book by a trader with an intellectual streak -- although he might say he’s an intellectual with a trading streak. Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system". “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. It explained things that I sort of felt existed but unable to articulate. August 23rd 2005 His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little bit about statistics, decision making under uncertainty, and behavioural economics. He is not afraid of telling it how it is even when he touches big names (Bill Gates, Soros and Warren Buffet just to name a few). You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. It has everything in a book that I yearn for....interesting ideas...some of which I don't grasp because hey are too clever for me...a smug narrator who seemingly knows more than everyone else...and a well-written and pleasing style. I’ve come to realize that some people find Nassim Taleb’s arrogance quite repugnant, but, personally, I find it rather charming. May 2002 Fooled by randomness - The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life If you watch a steam engine, you may not know how it works but you can soon get a fairly good idea of its behaviour, and you can predict its future behaviour accurately. This is one of the best books I have ever read. Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. For more than a decade, Neil deGrasse Tyson, the world-renowned astrophysicist and host of the popular radio and Emmy-nominated... To see what your friends thought of this book, Yeah, you see. Access-restricted-item true Addeddate 2014-06-05 17:38:38.475324 Bookplateleaf 0008 Boxid IA1611107 Camera Canon EOS 5D Mark II City New York Edition 2nd ed., updated. (Source), Anant Jain The five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. There’s some overlap across the books — but you'll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better. His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little. This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. Fooled by Randomness is one of that select group of books that changes your mind entirely. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets— Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. I've resisted reading Taleb for reasons he might approve of. (Source). Probably not. The five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. I was not disappointed. Part II would have been pretty good if I hadn't read a lot of other books on the topics, and for those who are interested in economic markets, I think this would interest you if you can move past the constant interjections of Taleb's personal philosophy. You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". It explained things that I sort of felt existed but unable to articulate. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to On Goodreads, it has a rating of 4.07 from 1,968 reviews. I really enjoyed Fooled by Randomness, but thought that the potshots taken at The Millionaire Next Door were a bit odd. Nietzsche was certainly on to something; it’s hard to avoid being offended by your betters. This is a book by a trader with an intellectual streak -- although he might say he’s an intellectual with a trading streak. Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan –has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. The 21 year old, who just moved out from home, and spends a lot of her time deliberating what to wear and eat, the 59 year old writer, who’s not sure whether the next page is even worth writing, and anyone who has someone with a bad illness in their family. (Source), Art De Vany I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. Nassim Taleb's book is highly idiosyncratic and personal, which is both what lends it a lot of its interest and what occasionally makes it irritating. And that I believe is the problem. Renowned statistician George Box once said, All models are wrong, but some are useful. Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan -has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. We’d love your help. He claims that with the number of i. This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. Taleb is a successful trader who has read poetry, history, psychology and many other subjects quite extensively. I've finally read this book because a friend whose insights I give some weight to respects Taleb's ideas. That's something I had forgotten about. The attitude and tone he takes has a purpose, to deliver a message in three parts: we are not good at dealing with uncertainty, we don't think about uncertainty right because we tend to only see what actually happened instead of considering all the possibilitie. In fact, he is clearly impressed by wealth, but counteracts it by stressing how little he works, how much time he devotes to intellectual pursuits and how much smarter he is than the typical wealthy person. That podcast changed my life On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. But, from reading their reports, I think that it paid off. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and basically the others in the series like "Fooled by Randomness" and "Antifragile") are also my favourites. Once I read it I could never look at the world the same again, nor could I take my old assumptions for granted. He seems to go around in circles repeating his ideas and thoughts, coming back to the same points, pulling in unrelated anecdotes while already inside one, leaving thoughts hanging without any form of closure, and generally ensuring you end up doing exactly what he says you shouldn't be doing: making sense of random noise. But, from reading their reports, I think that it paid off. See 1 question about Fooled by Randomness…, Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Incorrect Page Count: ISBN13: 9781400067930, Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson Shares His Reading Recommendations. The author’s most famous exclamation is that the 40 years of investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, "may be by chance." One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette - and calling it by some alternative “low risk” game.”. Really about how much randomness there is in our world. About: author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Skin In the Game, Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes), a (so far) 5-volume Amazon and B&N He claims that with the number of investors, it was a statistical certainty that one would obtain Buffett’s success. This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start. That podcast changed my life The author continually pontificates that random events happen in life. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times best-selling author of The Black Swan - has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. He continues down this train of thought until he reaches the conclusion that the ultimate success and failure of some people can primarily be explained by luck. It remains a fascinating book nonetheless. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. Having run into Nassim Taleb's later work "The Black Swan", last year (see review), I choose the new edition of his earlier contribution, "Fooled by Randomness" as one summer 2012's special reads. Success of some people is nothing but pure luck. Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. This book is a lot of painful reading for little reward, as there was nothing truly remarkable or revelatory about Taleb's insights. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. He merely invents parables to expound on his points. If you know of a more profound book of a similar nature, i'd appreciate your recommendations. I was happy to read the section on Tversky and Kahneman, but I find their work infinitely more interesting and readable than his summary, and you are spared the normative commentary. Most of what can be said of this book has already been said by other reviewers on GoodReads, so I will just briefly recap here: he is incredibly unlikeable, and infuses the book with anecdote and a general disdain for most of humanity, while exemplifying many of the characteristics he rails against. And it gets worse – like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: “Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do”, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probab. This is the best book I have read all year, closely followed by his other book, The Black Swan. I don’t remember who suggested reading this unusual “trading book” to me but whoever that was, I am sincerely thankful to that person. 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